Donald Trump recently raised the application fee for H-1B visas from $2000 to $100,000. That is a significant change and it affects the calculations for using H-1B visas to obtain labor from other countries.
The purpose of the H-1B visa program is to admit foreigners with special skills into the US and to use those skills to assist US employers. Over the years, the actual purpose has changed to allow for low-cost workers with some skills (not necessarily rare or special) to work in the US. Employers have used the program as a means of reducing labor expenses.
With the increased fee, the calculations for an H-1B visa change. The increase more than covers the reduction in labor expenses, and the result is that workers on H-1B visas now cost more than native US employees.
Companies have three paths forward (assuming that they do not lobby for exemptions).
First, they can pay the fee and continue to use foreign labor in the US. If they were hiring workers with truly exception skills, this is still a reasonable (albeit more expensive) solution.
Second, they can hire native US workers instead of foreign workers. They have an incentive to avoid this option: It is tantamount to admitting that they used the H-1B visas for cheap labor. It is also a more expensive solution, but perhaps less expensive than continuing with foreign workers on H-1B visas.
The third option is to transfer the workers from the US back to their native countries, and continue to assign them work. This is the least expensive path, but it sets up many companies for morale problems.
Companies have, for the past year and more, asked -- or demanded -- that workers cease remote work and instead work in the office. The explanations from companies have been singular: they need the productivity that comes from in-person collaboration.
If a company sends its H-1B workers "back home" and has them work remotely, then the argument for in-person collaboration is severely weakened and morale among the remaining (in-house) workers will plummet. Managers might explain that contract workers (many H-1B visa holders are contract workers) are less important for collaboration, but this sets up a two-tiered mindset for workers and is probably dangerous in the long run.
If managers allow all workers to work remotely, then their argument for "return to office" falls apart and they look like fools. Managers will do almost anything to avoid looking foolish, so we can assume that remote work for all workers will not happen.
Each company will have to find its own way forward with this change to the H-1B visa program. The decision involves direct expenses for labor and visas, policies for working in the office or remotely, and employee morale.
