A new year begins, and with it, many projections as the year of "The Linux Desktop".
For some reason, folks in the open source press want to predict the "Year of the Linux Desktop". This is the year (they think) that Linux will "take over" the desktop and become the dominant operating system for users around the world. Some even think that Windows will disappear completely.
To all of these people, I say: hogwash.
Linux is usable (I certainly use it at home) and reliable and economically feasible. But none of those (or even all of those) factors is enough to dislodge Microsoft Windows from it's monopoly of the desktop, home or corporate. Microsoft has a good foot-hold for desktop computing, and I think they will retain it, despite Windows Vista.
Linux and its associated applications (Open Office, The Gimp, etc.) are good, but they are not good enough (or better enough) to convince people to replace Windows. In the battle for the desktop, being equal to Windows, or even ten percent better than Windows, is not good enough to cause a revolution. You have to be significantly better, an order of magnitude better, and even then there will be hold-outs.
Microsoft is not winning friends with Windows Vista, but the majority of users will keep using Windows (Vista, Windows 7, or whatever) because it is close to what they have. Inertia will hold the Microsoft dominance in place.
That doesn't mean that Linux is doomed. I think Linux has a bright future. I think that its market share will grow (as will Apple's) and people will use Linux. Some will be home users, others will be corporations. I suspect that Apple will grow faster than Linux, simply because corporations like to buy things that have litigable parties. (Also, Apple does a smart job with the user interface.)
So I'm not holding out for the "year of the Linux desktop". I'm thinking instead: "new equilibrium".
